The Question: Who wins the key 2026 midterm races, nationally & here in Nebraska?
The Short Answer: My picks lean a bit more R. I predict a 2018 repeat.
Senate
| State | Race | Republican | Democrat | My Pick | Polling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Senate | Ricketts | Osborn | R | R+6 |
| IA | Senate | Hinson | Turek | R | R+2 |
| TX | Senate | Paxton | Talarico | R | R+1 |
| MI | Senate | Rogers | El-Sayed | D | D+5 |
| MN | Senate | Tafoya | Flanagan | D | D+7 |
| OH | Senate | Husted | Brown | R | D+3 |
| KS | Senate | Marshall | Hamilton | R | D+3 |
| NC | Senate | Whatley | Cooper | D | D+14 |
| AK | Senate | Sullivan | Peltola | R | D+2 |
| ME | Senate | Collins | Jackson | R | D+4 |
| SC | Senate | Graham | Andrews | R | R+4 |
I have Republicans winning 8 of these 11 Senate races, with Democrats taking Michigan, Minnesota & North Carolina. The idea of South Carolina or Alaska or even Nebraska being competitive comes across as outlandish to me. Same with Minnesota, they're not going to elect a Republican.
Texas: I have a suspicion that Texas was on its way to becoming a competitive state as of 2018, 2020. But with population shifts post 2020 (Blue voters moving out of Red states & Red voters moving out of Blue states), Texas is back to solid red.
Governor
| State | Race | Republican | Democrat | My Pick | Polling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Governor | Pillen | Walz | R | R+13 |
| IA | Governor | Lahn | Sand | D | D+5 |
| TX | Governor | Abbott | Hinajosa | R | R+6 |
| OH | Governor | Ramaswamy | Acton | D | D+4 |
Governor is a different story. I have Democrats winning in Iowa & Ohio. In Nebraska, I've always been less interested in predicting spreads, but if I had to guess it's Pillen by 10+.
Nebraska Down Ballot
| State | Race | Republican | Democrat | My Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | House 1 | Flood | Backemeyer | R |
| NE | House 2 | Harding | Powell | D |
| NE | House 3 | Smith | Stille | R |
| NE | Sec State | Petersen | Slattery | R |
| NE | Attorney General | Hilgers | Brasher | R |
| NE | Treasurer | Spellerberg | Ebers | R |
| NE | Legislature 26 | Howard | Dungan | D |
| NE | Legislature 4 | von Gillern | Maxwell-Ostdiek | R |
| NE | Legislature 36 | Holdcroft | Tompkins | D |
| NE | Lancaster Treasurer | Gibson | Garver | D |
| NE | Board of Regents 1 | Hosein | Comstock | D |
| NE | Lancaster Assessor | Johns | Nolte | D |
A Thought on Turnout
I consider myself an optimist & a believer that there is more good faith in government than people think. There's a cynical side to me that has largely felt "Get Out the Vote" messaging is code for, "My team, go out & vote. The other team, stay home please." The irony is higher voter participation probably leads to a smaller midterm bump for the opposition party.
Polling is the polling margin from my spreadsheet, shown as the leading party plus its lead in points. Races without polling data are marked –.